Influence of Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Energy and Food Security

The Russian-Ukraine War has and further influence the global energy and food security. However, the detailed influence degree, key weak points and influence process is still unclear in the current. Therefore, this study established a newly improved under-load cascading failure model with consideration of overload limitation, and used it to evaluate influence of Russian-Ukraine War on the global energy and food security. This study also proposed a method to assess the network structure characteristic including robustness and resilience through model simulation under different scenarios. The main results include: The upper limitation of node load has the dominant function on the global energy and food security, while the influence of lower limitation parameter of node load has limited function. All of the networks have relative consistent recover and anti-damage ability against Russian and Ukraine War and the global panic except barley network. A key phenomenon we should concern is that the largest trade flow amounts are not occurred in the failure nodes. The failure nodes are always the countries with low economic scale and political status. The results tell us that we should further strengthen the importance of enhance production ability and energy types to resist the risk of Russian and Ukraine War. The global international organizations are also required to strengthen the function of balance the global security demand of energy and food between big countries and small countries. We should pay more attention to the little countries in the Africa and Asia to handle the risk.

Automated summary

The Russian-Ukraine War has had an influence on global energy and food security, but the specific degree of influence, key weak points, and the process of influence remain unclear. This study uses a new under-load cascading failure model to evaluate the impact of the war on global energy and food security. The results show that node load upper limitation plays a dominant role in global energy and food security, while the impact of node load lower limitation is limited. All networks, except the barley network, have consistent recovery and anti-damage ability against the war. It is important to strengthen production ability and energy types to resist the risk of the war, and global international organizations should aim to balance the energy and food security demand between big and small countries.