Journal
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
Volume 170, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112987
Keywords
Electricity model; Hydropower generation; Climate variability; Model validation; Extreme events; Extreme weather impacts; European energy transition; Compound events
Funding
- Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG)
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With the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a modeling framework was constructed and validated to examine extreme impact events on the European power system. The model captures the variability and extremes of wind, photovoltaic and run-of-river production well, with relatively high correlations between modelled and observed data for most European countries. However, the model struggles to capture reservoir inflows and operating procedures of some countries.
With the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the coming decades will see a transition of Europe's power system, currently mainly based on fossil fuels towards a higher share of renewable sources. Increasing effects of fluctuations in electricity production and demand as a result of meteorological variability might cause compound events with unforeseen impacts. We constructed and validated a modeling framework to examine such extreme impact events on the European power system. This framework includes six modules: i) a reservoir hydropower inflow and ii) dispatch module; iii) a run-of-river hydropower production module; iv) a wind energy production module; v) a photovoltaic solar energy production model; and vi) an electricity demand module. Based on ERA5 reanalysis input data and present-day capacity distributions, we computed electricity production and demand for a set of European countries in the period 2015-2021 and compared results to observed data. The model captures the variability and extremes of wind, photovoltaic and run-of-river production well, with correlations between modelled and observed data for most countries of more than 0.87, 0.68 and 0.65 respectively. The hydropower dispatch module also functions well, with correlations up to 0.82, but struggles to capture reservoir inflows and operating procedures of some countries. A case study into the meteorological drivers of extreme events in Sweden and Spain showed that the meteorological conditions during extreme events selected by the model and extracted from observational data are similar, giving confidence in the application of the modeling framework for (future changes in) extreme event analysis.
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