Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 119, Issue 46, Pages -Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2210481119
Keywords
climate change; aerosol radiative forcing; aerosol-cloud interactions; climate sensitivity
Categories
Funding
- NASA [80NSSC21K2014, 80NSSC18K1020]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program [NA20OAR4310387]
- Federal Ministry of Education and Research Make Our Planet Great Again-German Research Initiative [57429624]
- U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric System Research Federal Award [DE-SC002227]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program [NA18NWS4620043B]
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This study quantifies the relationship between anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds using satellite observations, and estimates the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) by constraining the associated radiative forcing. The results indicate that the uncertainty in aerosol forcing is smaller and ECS may be larger than previously assessed.
How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)-the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is -1:11 +/- 0:43 W m(-2) over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments.
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