Generalized Gamma-CUSUM control chart with application of COVID-19 deaths

The increase in the number of infections and the worrisome state of mortality linked to the COVID-19 pandemic demand an optimal statistical model and efficient monitoring scheme to analyze the deaths. This paper aims to model the COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria using four non-normal distributions grouped under the generalized gamma distribution, by specifying the best-fit distribution to model the number of deaths linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, a control chart to monitor the COVID-19 deaths based on the best-fit distribution is proposed. The performance of the proposed Gamma-CUSUM chart as a monitoring scheme was compared with the standard normal-CUSUM chart. The results revealed that the Gamma-CUSUM chart first signals a change in the number of deaths on day 68 while there was no change in the number of deaths for the standard normal-CUSUM chart. Also, the exact point of change was visible on the Gamma-CUSUM chart which was impossible on a standard normal-CUSUM control chart.

Automated summary

This study aims to model COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria using four non-normal distributions, and proposes a control chart to monitor the deaths based on the best-fit distribution. The results show that the proposed Gamma-CUSUM chart outperforms the standard normal-CUSUM chart by detecting a change in the number of deaths on day 68 and identifying the exact point of change.