Future drought propagation through the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus-A Nordic perspective

Droughts can affect a multitude of public and private sectors, with impacts developing slowly over time. While droughts are traditionally quantified in relation to the hydrological components of the water cycle that they affect, this manuscript demonstrates a novel approach to assess future drought conditions through the lens of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept. To this end, a set of standardized drought indices specifically designed to represent different nexus sectors across 50 catchments in Sweden was computed based on an ensemble of past and future climate model simulations. Different patterns in the response of the four nexus sectors water, energy, food and ecosystem services to future climate change emerged, with different response times and drought durations across the sectors. These results offer new insights into the propagation of drought through the WEFE nexus in cold climates. They further suggest that future drought projections can be better geared towards decision makers by basing them on standardized drought indices that were specifically tailored to represent particular nexus sectors.

Automated summary

This manuscript presents a novel approach to assess future drought conditions through the WEFE nexus concept. Standardized drought indices, designed to represent different nexus sectors, were computed for 50 catchments in Sweden. The results reveal distinct patterns in the response of water, energy, food, and ecosystem services to future climate change, with different response times and drought durations across the sectors. These findings offer new insights into drought propagation through the WEFE nexus in cold climates and highlight the importance of tailored standardized drought indices for future drought projections.