Modeling and predicting the effects of climate change on cotton-suitable habitats in the Central Asian arid zone

Climate change has significantly affected global agricultural production, particularly in arid zones of Central Asia. Thus, we analyzed changes in the habitat suitability of cotton in Central Asia under various shared so-cioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios during 2021-2060. The results showed that the average minimum tem-perature in April, precipitation seasonality, and distance to rivers were the main environmental factors influencing the suitable distribution of cotton. Suitable habitats expanded toward the north and east, reaching a maximum net increase of 10.85 x 104 km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2041-2060, while habitats in the southwestern area showed a contracting trend. The maximum decreased and increased habitats were concen-trated at approximately 68 degrees E and 87 degrees E, respectively. In addition, their latitudinal distributions were concen-trated at approximately 40 degrees N and 44 degrees N. The longitudinal and latitudinal dividing lines of increased and decreased habitats were 69 degrees E and 41 degrees N, respectively. Habitats at the same altitude showed an increasing trend, excluding the elevation range of 125-325 m. Habitat shifts could exacerbate spatial conflicts with forest/ grassland and natural reserves. The maximum spatial overlap between them was observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2041-2060. These findings could provide scientific evidence for rational cotton cultivation planning in global arid zones.

Automated summary

Climate change has had a significant impact on global agricultural production, especially in arid areas of Central Asia. This study analyzed changes in cotton habitat suitability in Central Asia under different socioeconomic scenarios. The study found that factors such as minimum temperature, precipitation seasonality, and distance to rivers were key factors influencing the distribution of suitable cotton habitats. The study also found that suitable habitats expanded northward and eastward, while the southwestern area showed a contracting trend.