Climate-based identification of suitable cropping areas for giant reed and reed canary grass on marginal land in Central and Southern Europe under climate change

Giant reed (GR) and reed canary grass (RCG) have emerged as promising perennial industrial crops for providing sustainable bioenergy from marginal land. However, there is great uncertainty among farmers and researchers about where these crops can be grown in the future due to climate change, which complicates a timely transition to a bioeconomy. Therefore, this study quantifies marginal land and suitable cropping areas for GR and RCG in Europe, as well as their overlap. To derive these areas, the present (1991-2020) and future (2071-2100, RCP8.5) growing degree days, growing season length, annual precipitation, and aridity index were analyzed using the E-OBS observational dataset and EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations. The study concludes that while marginal land will decrease by similar to 18%, GR and RCG will profit from the changing European climate, increasing by similar to 24% and similar to 13%, respectively. Looking at regions of overlap between marginal land and the selected crops, a decrease of similar to 87% and an increase of similar to 462% is projected for RCG and GR, respectively. This is due to marginal land shifting southward, benefitting the warm-season grass GR, while RCG prefers cooler climates.

Automated summary

This study quantifies the marginal land and suitable cropping areas for giant reed (GR) and reed canary grass (RCG) in Europe, as well as their overlap. The results show that while marginal land will decrease by 18%, GR and RCG will benefit from the changing European climate, increasing by 24% and 13% respectively. The overlap between marginal land and the selected crops will decrease by 87% for RCG and increase by 462% for GR.