Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 17, Issue 12, Pages -Publisher
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c
Keywords
yield increase; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; crop model ensemble; global food security
Funding
- International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP) [IWYP115]
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
- IWYP, CIMMYT (Mexico)
- Chilean Technical and Scientific Research Council (CONICYT) by FONDECYT Project [1141048]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [31761143006, 41571493]
- Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of Czech Republic through SustEs [CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/000797]
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through Designing Future Wheat [BB/P016855/1]
- Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems [NE/N018125/1]
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This study extrapolated the best performing wheat crosses with increased canopy photosynthesis to estimate global wheat production using a multi-model ensemble. The results projected a 37% increase in global annual wheat production without expanding cropping area, meeting the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050. However, achieving this genetic yield potential will pose considerable challenges.
Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 +/- 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
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