4.7 Article

Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections

Ho-Nam Cheung et al.

Summary: This study investigates the uncertainty in future boreal winter climate projections based on ten models from the CMIP5. The large uncertainty in sea level pressure (SLP) responses is found in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Arctic, with a significant portion attributed to the Pacific-Atlantic SLP uncertainty pattern (PA( increment SLP)). This pattern is associated with perturbations in global sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic sea ice cover (SIC). The study also explores the dynamic mechanisms behind these uncertainties and discusses the limitations of the work.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

A recent weakening of winter temperature association between Arctic and Asia

Bingyi Wu et al.

Summary: The linkage between Arctic warming and mid-latitude regions has changed over the past two decades, with two distinct phases observed in winter temperatures in Asia. The Arctic-Asia temperature association strengthened during the first phase, characterized by a warm Arctic and cold Eurasia, and weakened during the second phase, characterized by warm Arctic and warm Eurasia. Simulation experiments suggest that observed Arctic sea ice loss contributes to these variations in winter atmosphere, causing fluctuations in the Arctic-Asia temperature association.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Impact of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Tripole on the Northwestern Pacific Weak Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Rui Jin et al.

Summary: Previous studies have focused on intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the central-southeastern western North Pacific. However, the modulators for weak TCs (WTCs) are not well understood. This research highlights the potential impact of the early spring North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomaly on WTC frequency and develops a physical-based empirical model to predict WTC frequency.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

An Extreme Tropical Cyclone Silence in the Western North Pacific in July 2020

Rui Jin et al.

Summary: The number of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific in July 2020 hit a record low, which can be attributed to the strong anticyclone and subsidence in the TC-genesis-prone region, as well as the intensified western Pacific subtropical high. This is closely linked to air-sea interaction in the tropical Indo-western Pacific and wave activities over Eurasia.

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration

Xiaoqin Lu et al.

Summary: This paper introduces the access to and characteristics of the tropical cyclone (TC) database maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, which records data on all TCs passing through the western North Pacific and South China Sea since 1949. With continuous TC monitoring and multi-source data collection, the database now comprises a wide range of information related to TCs, supporting ongoing research into TC climatic activity and forecasting.

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

How can the winter North Atlantic Oscillation influence the early summer precipitation in Northeast Asia: effect of the Arctic sea ice

Peng Zhang et al.

Summary: The study found that the early summer precipitation variability in Northeast Asia is not fully understood, but may be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Barents Sea ice cover. During negative NAO winters, anomalous northerlies increase local sea ice, leading to geopotential height anomalies that result in rich rainfall in southern NEA. Conversely, there may be reduced precipitation in northern NEA due to lower-level divergence.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Impact of tibetan plateau snow cover on tropical cyclogenesis via the Madden-Julian oscillation during the following boreal summer

Xiang Han et al.

Summary: The study reveals that the interannual variation of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau during the boreal winter influences the relationship between the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific during the following boreal summer. Years with high snow cover anomalies favor MJO propagation and tropical cyclone activity, while low snow cover anomalies have the opposite effect. Additionally, snow cover anomalies also impact upper-tropospheric circulation and vertical wind shear patterns.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Dominant Characteristics of Early Autumn Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Its Impact on Winter Eurasian Climate

Shuoyi Ding et al.

Summary: This study explores the dominant characteristics of interannual variations in autumn Arctic sea ice concentration and the impacts of September-October mean sea ice anomalies in the East Siberian-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas on winter Eurasian climate variability. The results show that decreased sea ice concentration in this region leads to tropospheric warming and positive geopotential height anomalies, affecting atmospheric circulation patterns and temperatures over Eurasia in the winter months.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Midlatitude Winter Extreme Temperature Events and Connections with Anomalies in the Arctic and Tropics

Irina Rudeva et al.

Summary: The study identified links between winter temperature extremes in midlatitudes and circulation anomalies in the Arctic and tropics, with tropical Pacific and Atlantic wave trains affecting North America and Siberia. The Arctic seas were found to be significantly important for Eurasian regions. Analysis suggests that pre-existing local temperature anomalies play a key role in the development of synoptic temperature extremes and the amplification of large-scale wave trains. The study also demonstrated that warm Arctic regions can lead to cold outbreaks in Siberia and North America.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

How Does the Arctic Sea Ice Affect the Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific?

Hao Fu et al.

Summary: This study investigates the impact of spring sea ice concentration in the Bering Sea on the interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. The results show that a decrease in spring sea ice concentration can lead to an increase in accumulated cyclone energy during the tropical cyclone season, favoring the increase of tropical cyclones.

FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Statistical seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

Kelvin T. F. Chan et al.

Summary: A statistical seasonal forecasting model, the SYSU Model, is proposed to predict the number of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific based on environmental factors in the preseason, achieving a 95% hit rate in forecasting accuracy over a 41-year period.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Diverse Eurasian Winter Temperature Responses to Barents-Kara Sea Ice Anomalies of Different Magnitudes and Seasonality

Ruonan Zhang et al.

Summary: The study suggests an intermittent causal effect of Barents-Kara sea-ice on Eurasian winter temperature variability. Results show that Eurasian cooling is stronger in response to modest autumn sea-ice loss compared to large loss, indicating nonlinear wave-meanflow interactions play a role in governing the dynamical responses.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The ERA5 global reanalysis

Hans Hersbach et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Prediction of accumulated cyclone energy in tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific in autumn

Yanjie Wu et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Dynamic genesis potential index for diagnosing present-day and future global tropical cyclone genesis

Bin Wang et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Increased European heat waves in recent decades in response to shrinking Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover

Ruonan Zhang et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A link of China warming hiatus with the winter sea ice loss in Barents-Kara Seas

Xinxin Li et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

How Robust is the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss Across Climate Models?

J. A. Screen et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Ingrid H. Onarheim et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model

Xinchang Zhang et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Predictability of summer extreme precipitation days over eastern China

Juan Li et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Unusual growth in intense typhoon occurrences over the Philippine Sea in September after the mid-2000s

Haozhe He et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the Atlantic Meridional Mode

Wei Zhang et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Simulated Atmospheric Response to Regional and Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Loss

James A. Screen

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

Jinhua Yu et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Interannual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation*

Zhiwei Wu et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2016)

Article Engineering, Ocean

An Overview of the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Database

Ming Ying et al.

JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TECHNOLOGY (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

An Abrupt Decrease in the Late-Season Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific

Pang-Chi Hsu et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A Poisson Regression Index for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Role of Large-Scale Vorticity in Genesis

Michael K. Tippett et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Future Change of Western North Pacific Typhoons: Projections by a 20-km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model

Hiroyuki Murakami et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2011)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall

Bingyi Wu et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation

Kerry Emanuel

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2007)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis

Suzana J. Camargo et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2007)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

Fan Ke

SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES (2007)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

NA Rayner et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2003)

Article Automation & Control Systems

Efficient algorithms for decision tree cross-validation

H Blockeel et al.

JOURNAL OF MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH (2003)