Projection of fuel cell electric vehicle demand reflecting the feedback effects between market conditions and market share affected by spatial factors

The Korean government has planned policies to increase the penetration rate of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Policy intervention has a positive effect on FCEV diffusion. Infrastructure distribution plays a significant role in accelerating penetration rate at the early stage of the market. Although inevitably differences exist in the accessibility of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) by region due to various constraints, few studies have considered accessibility in detail. This study analyzes how policies that vary depending on time and space, including infrastructure distribution, impact demand for FCEVs. A multistage structure is employed in the analysis to reflect the influence of spatial factors. Vehicle preference is analyzed through a discrete choice experiment at the first stage. The second stage solves the location problem and predicts the market share of FCEVs by reflecting the feedback effect between FCEVs' market share and the accessibility of HRSs through a loop structure. The results indicate that improving access to HRSs positively affects the initial stage of the market; however, after accessibility reaches a certain level, it no longer affects the market share. The subsidies for hydrogen refueling costs bring a relatively rapid change to the gradually increasing penetration rate of FCEVs.

Automated summary

This article examines the impact of government policies on the penetration rate of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), analyzes the importance of infrastructure distribution in the market penetration rate, and explores how policies vary depending on time and space affect the demand for FCEVs. The study finds that improving access to hydrogen refueling stations has a positive effect on the early stage of the market, but it no longer affects the market share after a certain level of accessibility is reached. Subsidies for hydrogen refueling costs can lead to a relatively rapid change in the gradually increasing penetration rate of FCEVs.