Refuelling infrastructure requirements for renewable hydrogen road fuel through the energy transition

Current commercially available options for decarbonisation of road transport are battery electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. BEVs are increasingly deployed, while hydrogen is in its infancy. We examine the infrastructure necessary to support hydrogen fuelling to various degrees of market penetration. Scotland makes a good exemplar of transport transition, with a world leading Net-Zero ambition and proven pathways for generating ample renewable energy. We identified essential elements of the new transport systems and the associated capital expenditure. We developed nine scenarios based on the pace of change and the ultimate market share of hydrogen, and constructed a model to analyse their infrastructure requirements. This is a multi-period model, incorporating Monte Carlo and Markov Chain elements. A no-regrets initial action is rapid deployment of enough hydrogen infrastructure to facilitate the early years of a scenario where diesel fuel becomes replaced with hydrogen. Even in a lower demand scenario of only large and heavy goods vehicles using hydrogen, the same infrastructure would be required within a further two years. Subsequent investment in infrastructure could be considered in the light of this initial development.

Automated summary

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles are currently the main options for decarbonising road transport, with BEVs being more widely deployed than hydrogen vehicles. This study focuses on the infrastructure requirements for hydrogen fuelling at different levels of market penetration. Scotland is used as an example due to its net-zero ambition and ample renewable energy sources. The study develops nine scenarios and a model to analyse the infrastructure needs, suggesting that early deployment of hydrogen infrastructure is necessary even in a lower demand scenario.