Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector

Revealing the regional differences and drivers of provincial urban residential building sector carbon emissions (URBCE) is critical for regional collaborative emission reduction in achieving the Dural carbon targets. This study tries to innovatively construct a framework for the exploration of the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of Chinese URBCE in 30 provinces during 2000-2019, combining kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis and temporal-spatial LMDI model. Results indicate that: (1) A vast majority of regions have undergone a sharp growth in URBCE, with the regional gap of URBCE gradually widening. (2) Besides, the spatial pattern of regional URBCE is basically stable, with High-High distributed in the Northeast and North China, and Low-Low concentrated in the Southwest. (3) Urban residential building floor space per capita, population, and urbanization are promotive driving forces, while carbon intensity and energy intensity are increasingly inhibiting. This study can provide policymakers a better understanding of URBCE and help them develop regionally-specific emission reduction strategies. Additionally, it offers fresh perspective on how to research the spatiotemporal disparities of carbon emissions in other sectors and nations, and could be of international significance.

Automated summary

This study innovatively explores the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of urban residential building sector carbon emissions (URBCE) in 30 provinces of China from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the majority of regions have experienced significant growth in URBCE, leading to a widening regional gap. The spatial pattern of URBCE is stable, with high values in the Northeast and North China, and low values in the Southwest. Factors such as urban residential building floor space per capita, population, and urbanization are promoting URBCE, while carbon intensity and energy intensity are increasingly inhibiting it. This study provides policymakers with a better understanding of URBCE and helps them develop regionally-specific emission reduction strategies. Additionally, it offers a fresh perspective on researching spatiotemporal disparities of carbon emissions in other sectors and nations, and has international significance.