Journal
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
Volume 104, Issue 1, Pages E107-E125Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0310.1
Keywords
History; Forecast verification; skill; Seasonal forecasting; Statistical forecasting
Categories
Ask authors/readers for more resources
In October 1941, Nazi Germany's High Command realized that the war against the Soviet Union could not be ended before winter. German professor Franz Baur prepared a long-range weather forecast for the winter of 1941/42, predicting it would be normal or milder than normal. However, the winter turned out to be one of the worst, damaging Baur's reputation. Based on original wartime prognoses and Baur's history, this article argues that the judgment against Baur was too harsh and unfair.
In October 1941, Nazi Germany's High Command realized that the war against the Soviet Union could not be ended before winter. The German professor Franz Baur prepared a long-range weather forecast for the winter of 1941/42. Baur never revealed anything about this forecast. However, according to an article published 10 years after Baur's death, Baur predicted that the winter of 1941/42 would be normal or milder than normal, primarily based on the main argument that the previous two winters had been very severe and never in climatic history had more than two severe winters occurred in a row. The winter ended up being one of the worst. Today, Baur's prognoses from wartime are public. In this article, it is shown that the previous description of Baur's prognosis for the winter of 1941/42 is incorrect. Baur had a problematic relationship with his colleagues, so it is possible that the story of his prognosis is incorrect due to personal and professional contradictions. Baur's postulated prognosis for the winter of 1941/42 destroyed his reputation. Based on the original prognoses from wartime and Baur's scientific and personal history, this article shows that this judgment was too harsh and unfair.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available