Threshold dynamics of a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with imperfect quarantine

In this paper, we study a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with imperfect quarantine. We perform a detailed mathematical analysis of the dynamics of the stochastic model. The basic reproduction number Rs0 turns out to be a sharp threshold, that is, if Rs0 < 1, then the disease-free equilibrium of the stochastic model is globally stable almost surely, whereas if Rs0 > 1, the Markov process is positive recurrence which indicates that the disease will prevail. We also adopt the data of weekly infected cases for northern China from the first week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2014, to fit the model and estimate the parameters.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

In this paper, a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with imperfect quarantine is studied. The dynamics of the model are analyzed in detail using mathematical analysis. It is found that the basic reproduction number Rs0 serves as a sharp threshold, determining the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the prevalence of the disease.