Optimal combinations of CSF biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline and clinical conversion in cognitively unimpaired participants and mild cognitive impairment patients: A multi-cohort study

Introduction: Our objective was determining the optimal combinations of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers for predicting disease progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other neurodegenerative diseases.Methods: We included 1,983 participants from three different cohorts with longitudinal cognitive and clinical data, and baseline CSF levels of A beta 42, A beta 40, phosphorylated tau at threonine-181 (p-tau), neurofilament light (NfL), neurogranin, alpha-synuclein, soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), YKL-40, S100b, and interleukin 6 (IL-6) (Elecsys NeuroToolKit).Results: Change of modified Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite (mPACC) in cognitively unimpaired (CU) was best predicted by p-tau/A beta 42 alone (R-2 >= 0.31) or together with NfL (R-2 = 0.25), while p-tau/A beta 42 (R-2 >= 0.19) was sufficient to accurately predict change of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients. P-tau/A beta 42 (AUC >= 0.87) and p-tau/A beta 42 together with NfL (AUC >= 0.75) were the best predictors of conversion to AD and all-cause dementia, respectively.Discussion: P-tau/A beta 42 is sufficient for predicting progression in AD, with very high accuracy. Adding NfL improves the prediction of all-cause dementia conversion and cognitive decline.

Automated summary

The study aimed to determine the optimal combinations of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers for predicting disease progression in Alzheimer's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases. The results showed that the ratio of phosphorylated tau and A beta 42 alone can accurately predict progression in Alzheimer's disease, and adding neurofilament light improves the prediction of all-cause dementia conversion.