Validating global horizontal irradiance estimated by McClear model under clear-sky and all-sky conditions in Pakistan

The availability of accurate and reliable solar radiation data is very important to explore solar energy potential for commercial power plants. This study presents the validation of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from McClear model under clear-sky and all-sky conditions against measured data for complex topography of Pakistan. The McClear GHI shows good agreement with measured GHI under clear-sky conditions for nine stations and good correlation was achieved with correlation coefficient ranging from 0.972 to 0.992. The relative mean bias error (rMBE) and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) using GHI data having temporal resolution of 10 minutes was ranging from -2.3 to 6.4% and 3.6 to 7.8% respectively. A seasonal statistical analysis shows variation of errors during seasons, significant variation of errors was observed for monthly statistical analysis, the overall errors for all stations were maximum in January and minimum in June. Cloud fraction (CF) from three state-of-the-art datasets (ERA-5, MERRA-2 and MODIS) was incorporated into McClear clear-sky GHI (GHI(MC,clear-sky)) to derive commercially resourceful all-sky GHI data (GHI(MC,all-sky)) using a noval approach. The rMBE of GHI(MC,all-sky) using CF from ERA-5, MERRA-2 and MODIS ranges from 0.1 to 8.4%, 0.1 to 14.1% and 0.2 to 16.8% respectively. The application of ERA-5 cloud fraction shows good correlation with correlation coefficient ranging from 0.871 to 0.966 and gave best results as rMBE for all stations is less than 4% except one station, the long-term GHI(MC,all-sky) data can be used for the solar resource assessment of Pakistan in the absence of measured data.

Automated summary

The availability of accurate solar radiation data is crucial for assessing the solar energy potential of commercial power plants. This study validates the McClear model's global horizontal irradiance (GHI) against measured data for Pakistan's complex topography. The results show good agreement between McClear GHI and measured GHI under clear-sky conditions, with high correlation coefficients.