Make Us Great Again: The Causes of Declinism in Major Powers

Narratives of national decline occur frequently, often independent of objective measures of decline. What causes declinism? First, I argue that declinism most often comes from opposition brokers. Brokers bring otherwise unconnected groups and individuals together in a coalition. This coalition is well positioned to blame the nation's decline on the establishment. Second, I argue that negative events or conditions help narratives of decline resonate with audiences. Using text analyses of UK parliamentary speech, I show that declinism was rampant in late-1970s Britain. I show how two brokers-Margaret Thatcher and Keith Joseph-brought together previously unconnected groups to create a coalition that centered on British decline. Negative events, particularly the Winter of Discontent, helped declinism resonate, something the coalition recognized and exploited. Finally, I trace the foreign policy consequences of Thatcher's declinism, particularly with respect to the Falklands War.

Automated summary

Narratives of national decline often occur with the existence of opposition brokers and the assistance of negative events, which help create resonance with audiences.