4.6 Article

Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Article Economics

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Giovanni Angelini et al.

Summary: This study presents a framework to detect mispricing and test informational efficiency in high-frequency prediction markets, using association football betting exchange data. The results demonstrate that significant informational inefficiency and behavioral biases can be reflected in prices, even in markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2022)

Article Management

Weighted Elo rating for tennis match predictions *

Giovanni Angelini et al.

Summary: The Elo rating method, originally applied to tennis by FiveThirtyEight.com, estimates player strength based on career and last match outcome. The new version, Weighted Elo (WElo), incorporates player form by weighting Elo updates according to last match scorelines. In empirical testing, WElo outperformed popular forecasting methods in tennis, providing profitable opportunities through a simple betting strategy.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH (2022)

Review Business, Finance

Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review

Philip W. S. Newall et al.

Summary: A large body of literature suggests that sports bettors exhibit biases towards either longshots or favorites in different markets. These biases are dependent on the number of potential outcomes and the probability of the favorite. Overall, individual sports bettors may possess biases towards both highly likely and highly unlikely events.

RISKS (2021)

Article Business, Finance

An encyclopedia for stock markets? Wikipedia searches and stock returns

Simon Behrendt et al.

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS (2020)

Article Business, Finance

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Guy Elaad et al.

FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Economics

Extension of the Elo rating system to margin of victory

Stephanie Kovalchik

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2020)

Article Management

The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters

Alasdair Brown et al.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH (2019)

Article Economics

Hidden Power of Trading Activity: The FLB in Tennis Betting Exchanges

Isabel Abinzano et al.

JOURNAL OF SPORTS ECONOMICS (2019)

Article Economics

A calibration method with dynamic updates for within-match forecasting of wins in tennis

Stephanie Kovalchik et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2019)

Article Economics

Efficiency of online football betting markets

Giovanni Angelini et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2019)

Article Economics

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Alasdair Brown et al.

ECONOMIC INQUIRY (2018)

Article Economics

To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency

Stefan Lyocsa et al.

APPLIED ECONOMICS (2018)

Article Economics

Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs

Xue-Zhong He et al.

JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS (2017)

Article Economics

Game, set and match: the favourite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges

Isabel Abinzano et al.

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS (2016)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Searching for the GOAT of tennis win prediction

Stephanie Ann Kovalchik

JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN SPORTS (2016)

Article Business, Finance

The CAPS Prediction System and Stock Market Returns

Christopher N. Avery et al.

REVIEW OF FINANCE (2016)

Article Business, Finance

Tweets and Trades: the Information Content of Stock Microblogs

Timm O. Sprenger et al.

EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT (2014)

Article Business, Finance

Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media

Hailiang Chen et al.

REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES (2014)

Article Economics

What causes the favourite-longshot bias? Further evidence from tennis

Jiri Lahvicka

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS (2014)

Article Management

Predicting the outcomes of tennis matches using a low-level point model

Demetris Spanias et al.

IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS (2013)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves

Helen Susannah Moat et al.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2013)

Article Mathematics, Applied

A common-opponent stochastic model for predicting the outcome of professional tennis matches

William J. Knottenbelt et al.

COMPUTERS & MATHEMATICS WITH APPLICATIONS (2012)

Article Economics

A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

Ian McHale et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2011)

Article Economics

Explaining the Favorite-Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?

Erik Snowberg et al.

JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY (2010)

Article Economics

Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football

Lars Magnus Hvattum et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2010)

Article Economics

Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Stephen Easton et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2010)

Article Economics

Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?

Julio del Corral et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2010)

Article Economics

Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition

Benjamin Scheibehenne et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (2007)

Article Economics

Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

CF Manski

ECONOMICS LETTERS (2006)