A reliability analysis of fuel supply for district heating systems based on statistical test method

Relevant problem of the reliability of fuel supply to heat sources operating in district heating systems is considered. A methodical approach is proposed for assessing possible shortages of fuel in the fuel supply system, based on the statistical test or the Monte Carlo method using initial statistical data on fuel demand and supply. An algorithm for assessing the reliability of the fuel supply system is developed, accounting various modeling conditions, in particular, the formation of current fuel reserves and the interchangeability of fuels between heat sources. A number of computational experiments have been carried out, and some of the results obtained are presented. Conclusions and directions for further research are formulated. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automated summary

This article examines the relevance of fuel supply reliability to heat sources in district heating systems. It proposes a methodical approach for assessing potential fuel shortages in the fuel supply system using statistical tests or the Monte Carlo method. An algorithm is developed to evaluate the reliability of the fuel supply system, accounting for various modeling conditions such as current fuel reserves and fuel interchangeability between heat sources. Computational experiments are conducted, and some results are presented. Conclusions and directions for further research are provided.