What structural factors have held back China's birth rate?

In contrast to the overpopulation predicted by the population explosion theory in the 1960s, the issue of depopulation has attracted increasing attention from governments and scholars around the world. To explore the driving factors that have affected the birth rate in China, we obtained data on the birth rates in 31 Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2019. We then conducted feasible generalized least-squares regression analysis to identify the key factors. The results show that marketization, education level, and the proportions of secondary and tertiary industries were the key factors contributing to the decreasing birth rate, whereas improvements of transportation and medical services supported the desire to have children. Although the degree of influence of different factors differed over time and across regions, the economic and educational factors remained important and should not be underestimated. We propose that if the government wants to increase the willingness of young men and women to have children and help China to maintain a sustainable population, it should reduce the economic and opportunity costs of childbearing and the burden of raising children. Our methodology and outcomes will provide a reference for other countries that must identify key driving factors to support the development of their own population policies.

Automated summary

In contrast to previous predictions of overpopulation, the issue of depopulation has become increasingly important. This study collected birth rate data from 31 Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2019 and conducted regression analysis to identify key factors. It found that marketization, education level, and the proportions of secondary and tertiary industries were the key factors contributing to the decreasing birth rate, while improvements in transportation and medical services supported the desire to have children. Economic and educational factors remained important and should not be underestimated. The study's methodology and findings can provide a reference for other countries developing population policies.