Water resources availability in southern Europe at the basin scale in response to climate change scenarios

Background: Climate and the hydrological cycle are closely linked; therefore, in the most likely scenarios of climate change, the increase in temperature may influence the expected variation in precipitation variation but will also have a major impact on the availability of water resources in the world in general and in southern Europe in particular. As a case study, it was applied to a western Mediterranean basin altered since antiquity. For this study, the medium and long-term water resources were assessed. The known method Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) has been used. Mainly because due to its great hydrological relevance in mountainous areas, the accumulation and melting of snow. The aim of this research to assess the evolution of runoff distribution and its impact on available water resources under different climate change scenarios. Results: It was observed clearly a decreasing of precipitation and evapotranspiration and otherwise an increasing of temperature. The major climatic effect is that at present, runoff is already much lower than that predicted in the different basin hydrological policy. Specifically for the studied basin, the available resources are expected to decrease by 50% with respect to the current ones, affecting mainly the current agricultural land uses, which should be reconsidered in the medium term. Conclusions: It can be concluded that surface water use policy was calculated with climatic assumptions that are no longer met. Consequently, this research reveals the usefulness of basin-scale climate studies in southern Europe to determine the water resources availability in the near future.

Automated summary

Climate change has a major impact on water resources availability in the western Mediterranean basin, with decreasing precipitation and evapotranspiration and increasing temperature. The study predicts a 50% decrease in available resources, which will affect current agricultural land uses and necessitate a reconsideration of surface water use policy.