Journal
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY
Volume 72, Issue -, Pages 90-103Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2015.12.007
Keywords
Odds; Bayesian; Frequentist; Bayes factors
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Funding
- National Science Foundation [DMS-1007773, DMS-1407775, BCS-1521855]
- National Institutes of Health National Institute on Aging [R01-AG042568]
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Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations - even the full Bayesian analysis - have complete frequentist justification. Versions of our proposal can be implemented that require only minor modifications to existing practices yet overcome some of their most severe shortcomings. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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