Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast

In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system-ShakeAlert (R)-managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients' expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N= 1219), Oregon (N= 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.

Automated summary

After the full activation of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system in California, it has been rolled out in Oregon and Washington. A survey conducted in California, Oregon, and Washington found that the majority of respondents had high expectations and perceived usefulness of the system. Respondents who expected accurate and easy-to-use alerts, expressed tolerance for missed and erroneous warnings, and anticipated being affected by a damaging earthquake had even higher expectations. The study suggests opportunities to align public preferences and expectations with the operations of the ShakeAlert system, including adjusting alerting thresholds and improving post-alert messaging.