Arctic Climate Extremes Comment

There are multiple extreme events underway in the Arctic that are beyond previous records: rain in Greenland, Alaska weather variability, and ecosystem reorganizations in the Barents and the northern Bering Sea associated with climate change and sea-ice loss. Such unique extreme events represent a philosophical challenge for interpretation, i.e., a lack of statistical basis, as well as important information for regional adaptation to climate change. These changes are affecting regional food security, human/wildlife health, cultural activities, and marine wildlife conservation. Twenty years ago, the Arctic was more resilient to climate change than now, as sea ice had a broader extent and was three times thicker than today. These new states cannot be assigned probabilities because one cannot a priori conceive of these states. They often have no historical analogues. A way forward for adaptation to future extremes is through scenario/narrative approaches; a recent development in climate change policy is through decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU).

Automated summary

Multiple extreme events in the Arctic, such as rain in Greenland and Alaska weather variability, are posing challenges for interpretation and adaptation to climate change. These changes are impacting regional food security, human/wildlife health, cultural activities, and marine wildlife conservation. Scenario/narrative approaches and decision making under deep uncertainty offer potential ways forward for adaptation to future extremes.