Dynamical geography and transition paths of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic

By analyzing a time-homogeneous Markov chain constructed using trajectories of undrogued drifting buoys from the NOAA Global Drifter Program, we find that probability density can distribute in a manner that resembles very closely the recently observed recurrent belt of high Sargassum concentration in the tropical Atlantic between 5 and 10 degrees N, coined the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt (GASB). A spectral analysis of the associated transition matrix further unveils a forward attracting almost-invariant set in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a corresponding basin of attraction weakly connected with the Sargasso Sea but including the nutrient-rich regions around the Amazon and Orinoco rivers mouths and also the upwelling system off the northern coast of West Africa. This represents a data-based inference of potential remote sources of Sargassum recurrently invading the Intra-Americas Seas (IAS). By further applying Transition Path Theory (TPT) to the data-derived Markov chain model, two potential pathways for Sargassum into the IAS from the upwelling system off the coast of Africa are revealed. One TPT-inferred pathway takes place along the GASB. The second pathway is more southern and slower, first going through the Gulf of Guinea, then across the tropical Atlantic toward the mouth of the Amazon River, and finally along the northeastern South American margin. The existence of such a southern TPT-inferred pathway may have consequences for bloom stimulation by nutrients from river runoff. (C) 2022 Author(s).

Automated summary

By analyzing data from ocean drifters, this study reveals the similarity between the distribution of probability density and the observed high concentration belt of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic. It also identifies a northwest basin in the Gulf of Mexico that attracts Sargassum, which is weakly connected to the Sargasso Sea but includes nutrient-rich regions and an upwelling system off the coast of West Africa. Transition Path Theory is then applied to infer potential pathways for Sargassum invasion, showing two possible routes from the African coast into the Intra-Americas Seas.