Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in southeastern USA

Climate change and its impact on agriculture productivity vary among crops and regions. The southeastern United States (SE-US) is agro-ecologically diversified, economically dependent on agriculture, and mostly overlooked by agroclimatic researchers. The objective of this study was to compute the effect of climatic variables; daily maximum temperature (T-max), daily minimum temperature (T-min), and rainfall on the yield of major cereal crops i.e., corn (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in SE-US. A fixed-effect model (panel data approach) was used by applying the production function on panel data from 1980 to 2020 from 11 SE-US states. An asymmetrical warming pattern was observed, where nocturnal warming was 105.90%, 106.30%, and 32.14%, higher than the diurnal warming during corn, rice, and wheat growing seasons, respectively. Additionally, a shift in rainfall was noticed ranging from 19.2 to 37.2 mm over different growing seasons. Rainfall significantly reduced wheat yield, while, it had no effect on corn and rice yields. The T-max and T-min had no significant effect on wheat yield. A 1 degrees C rise in T-max significantly decreased corn (- 34%) and rice (- 8.30%) yield which was offset by a 1 degrees C increase in T-min increasing corn (47%) and rice (22.40%) yield. Conclusively, overall temperature change of 1 degrees C in the SE-US significantly improved corn yield by 13%, rice yield by 14.10%, and had no effect on wheat yield.

Automated summary

This study explores the impact of climate variables on the yield of major cereal crops in the southeastern United States. The findings reveal an asymmetrical warming pattern, with nocturnal warming having a greater effect on crop yield than daytime warming. Additionally, rainfall significantly affects wheat yield while having no effect on corn and rice yields.