Estimation of probabilistic seismic sliding displacement and pseudo-static coefficients (k15) for seismic stability assessment of slopes in the southern Lower Mainland, British Columbia

Seismic stability of slopes across the Lower Mainland, British Columbia, is investigated based on a probabilistic solution of the Newmark sliding block analogy. The various seismicity sources in the region and the latest updates in sliding displacement prediction models are utilized to determine the probabilistic values for the sliding displacement of slopes at 10 sites across the southern Lower Mainland. The probabilistic displacement (D-prob) values of the considered 10 sites are used to assess the spatial variation of D pro b and the pseudo-static seismic coefficient for D-prob = 15 cm (k(15)) across the Lower Mainland. Based on spatial variation patterns observed at 7 training sites, regression analysis is employed to develop regional interpolation models to estimate D-prob and k(15) values. The accuracy of the regression models to regionally interpolate D-prob and k(15) values is confirmed considering model residuals. Calculated probabilistic values at 3 additional test sites confirm that the proposed models estimate D-prob and k(15) values with minimal error in D-prob (< 5 cm). The application of the developed D-prob and k(15) regional interpolation models is presented with an illustrative example from Coquitlam in the northeastern Lower Mainland.

Automated summary

This study investigates the seismic stability of slopes in the Lower Mainland, British Columbia, using a probabilistic solution. It utilizes various seismicity sources and sliding displacement prediction models to determine the probabilistic values of slope displacement at 10 sites. Regional interpolation models are developed using regression analysis to estimate the probabilistic values of slope displacement and seismic coefficient.