Crowd risk prediction in a spiritually motivated crowd

Since time immemorial, India has hosted numerous religious gatherings and periodic events. Many of these events have been marred by crowd crushes and accidents. Human behavior being a complex phenomenon, can lead to complex behaviors. This makes the safety of people in crowded places a major concern for the government and management authorities. Capturing and studying these behaviors through empirical studies is essential to predicting crowd risk at a given location. To predict the level of risk, a comprehensive crowd risk prediction model in the form of Crowd Risk Index (CRI) was developed in this study. The CRI was developed from three indices (1) Crowd Dynamic Index (includes speed, flow, density, social group, and serpentine group behavior) (2) Crowd Anxiety Index (includes patience and aggression scores) (3) Temperature Humidity Index (includes temperature and humidity). With an overarching understanding of the factors leading to critical crowd conditions, the CRI developed in this work can help the crowd managers reasonably predict the level of risk and implement appropriate crowd management measures.

Automated summary

India has a long history of religious gatherings and events, many of which have been marred by crowd crushes and accidents. This study developed a comprehensive crowd risk prediction model, the Crowd Risk Index (CRI), to help predict and manage the level of risk in crowded places.