Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications

The historical relevance of the Thera (Santorini) volcanic eruption is unclear because of major dating uncertainty. Long placed similar to 1500 BCE and during the Egyptian New Kingdom (starts similar to 1565-1540 BCE) by archaeologists, C-14 pointed to dates >= 50-100 years earlier during the preceding Second Intermediate Period. Several decades of debate have followed with no clear resolution of the problem-despite wide recognition that this uncertainty undermines an ability to synchronize the civilizations of the eastern Mediterranean in the mid-second millennium BCE and write wider history. Recent work permits substantial progress. Volcanic CO2 was often blamed for the discrepancy. However, comparison of C-14 dates directly associated with the eruption from contemporary Aegean contexts-both on and remote from Thera-can now remove this caveat. In turn, using Bayesian analysis, a revised and substantially refined date range for the Thera eruption can be determined, both through the integration of the large C-14 dataset relevant to the Thera eruption with the local stratigraphic sequence on Thera immediately prior to the eruption, and in conjunction with the wider stratigraphically-defined Aegean archaeological sequence from before to after the eruption. This enables a robust high-resolution dating for the eruption similar to 1606-1589 BCE (68.3% probability), similar to 1609-1560 BCE (95.4% probability). This dating clarifies long-disputed synchronizations between Aegean and East Mediterranean cultures, placing the eruption during the earlier and very different Second Intermediate Period with its Canaanite-Levantine dominated world-system. This gives an importantly altered cultural and historical context for the New Palace Period on Crete and the contemporary Shaft Grave era in southern Greece. In addition, the revised dating, and a current absence of southern Aegean chronological data placed soon afterwards, highlights a period of likely devastating regional eruption impact in the earlier-mid 16(th) century BCE southern Aegean.

Automated summary

The historical relevance of the Thera volcanic eruption and its synchronizations with Aegean and East Mediterranean civilizations have been disputed. Recent research using Bayesian analysis and C-14 dating has provided a more precise date range for the eruption, around 1606-1589 BCE, which clarifies its cultural and historical context.