Reservoir Operation Rules with Uncertainties in Reservoir Inflow and Agricultural Demand Derived with Stochastic Dynamic Programming

A proposed stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) method with uncertainties in stream flow and water demand is developed to calculate optimal reservoir operation rules. The SDP method extends the classic SDP method that considers only one uncertainty in its operation rules. Time series of reservoir inflow and agricultural water demand for the Aydoghmoush Reservoir in eastern Azarbayejan, Iran, were obtained from meteorological data, available climate parameters, hydrologic data, and crop water demand. The application of the developed SDP with two uncertainties was evaluated with operation rules corresponding to four different scenarios, and optimal reservoir releases were determined for a drought year. Reservoir operation results were evaluated with different performance indices. This study's results demonstrate the advantage of considering uncertainties in reservoir inflow and water demand with the SDP method. The developed SDP method has general applicability under a range of climatic conditions, and the calculated operation rules cover the expected ranges of streamflow and water demand during the operating years. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.