4.4 Article

High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Debbie (2017). Part I: The Inner-Core Structure and Evolution during Offshore Intensification

Journal

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Volume 80, Issue 2, Pages 441-456

Publisher

AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-22-0011.1

Keywords

Dynamics; Tropical cyclones; Intensification; Numerical weather prediction; forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Debbie made a deadly impact on Australia in 2017, causing 14 fatalities and $2.67 billion in economic loss. It underwent rapid intensification from category 2 to category 4 within 18 hours before landfall. A detailed analysis of the inner-core structure and evolution revealed two stages: slow intensification and rapid intensification.
Tropical Cyclone Debbie (2017) made landfall near Airlie Beach on 28 March 2017 causing 14 fatalities and an estimated $2.67 billion (U.S. dollars) economic loss and was ranked as the most dangerous cyclone to hit Australia since TC Tracy in 1974. In addition to the extreme flooding as TC Debbie moved onshore and down the east coast of Australia, it intensified rapidly just offshore from category 2 to category 4 on the Australian TC intensity scale in under 18 h prior to making landfall. A high-resolution WRF simulation is used to analyze the inner-core structure and evolution during the offshore intensification period. Two stages are identified: a slow intensification (SI) stage characterized by an asymmetric eyewall contraction and a rapid intensification (RI) stage characterized by three eyewall breakdown and redevelopment events. Each round of breakdown and reestablishment brings high potential vorticity and equivalent potential temperature air back into the eyewall, reinvigorating eyewall convection activity and driving intensification.

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