Identifying emerging topics in a technological domain

Identifying emerging technological topics is of great interest to decision makers, but identifying such technologies usually has two problems. First, an overwhelming amount of information is given to researchers on many subjects. Second, the effect of the topics is usually ignored. This paper describes a new overlap method for locating emerging topics in a specific technology domain. Two models of technological patents, namely, those based on the direct citation and genetic approaches, were combined to identify new and persistent clusters. The method was then applied to the technological domain of solar photovoltaic. Fifteen emerging topics were identified for the period 1980-2010, and these topics were evaluated by the history of innovation and development of solar cells. These topics were characterized in various ways to understand the motive forces behind their emergence. Results indicated that the methodology could be a useful tool for identifying emerging technological topics.