Global demand analysis for carbon dioxide as raw material from key industrial sources and direct air capture to produce renewable electricity-based fuels and chemicals

Defossilisation of the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system is one of the key goals in the upcoming decades to mitigate climate change. Sharp reduction in the costs of solar photovoltaics, wind power, and battery technologies enables a rapid transition of the power and some segments of the transport sectors to sustainable energy resources. However, renewable electricity-based fuels and chemicals are required for the defossilisation of hard-to-abate segments of transport and industry. The global demand for carbon dioxide as raw material for the production of e-fuels and e-chemicals during a global energy transition to 100% renewable energy is analysed in this research. Carbon dioxide capture and utilisation potentials from key industrial point sources, including cement mills, pulp and paper mills, and waste incinerators, are evaluated. According to this study's estimates, the demand for carbon dioxide increases from 0.6 in 2030 to 6.1 gigatonnes in 2050. Key industrial point sources can potentially supply 2.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and thus meet the majority of the demand in the 2030s. By 2050, however, direct air capture is expected to supply the majority of the demand, contributing 3.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Sustainable and unavoidable industrial point sources and direct air capture are vital technologies which may help the world to achieve ambitious climate goals.

Automated summary

The defossilisation of the global energy system is a key goal to mitigate climate change. This research analyzes the global demand for carbon dioxide as raw material for the production of renewable electricity-based fuels and chemicals during a global energy transition to 100% renewable energy. It evaluates the carbon dioxide capture and utilisation potentials from key industrial point sources. The study estimates that the demand for carbon dioxide will increase from 0.6 gigatonnes in 2030 to 6.1 gigatonnes in 2050, with key industrial point sources potentially supplying the majority of the demand in the 2030s and direct air capture supplying the majority by 2050.