Towards a dramatic reduction in the European Natural Gas consumption: Italy as a case study

In recent months, gas prices have reached unprecedented levels, hurting the European economy and exacer-bating energy poverty conditions. This paper deals with investigating measures for a rapid reduction in the Italian natural gas (NG) consumption. The aim is to assess and quantify energy, economic, social and environ-mental impacts of different strategies to be implemented promptly. Several solutions, such as utility and resi-dential PV systems, Wind plants, biomethane, green hydrogen and heat pumps, have been analysed. Different implementation levels of such solutions have been simulated in combination with each other by means of the MATLAB Toolbox for EnergyPLAN. The NG Abatement Cost (NGAC) has been calculated. That indicator allows an immediate evaluation of economic benefits comparing it with current and future NG spot prices and potential import alternatives. The NGAC of the best strategies is between 40 and 70 euro/MWh depending on the amount of achieved savings. Less than 80 billion in total investment leads to a NG reduction of 75 TWh/year at an average abatement cost of about 70 euro/MWh. That entails an employment impact of 640,000 temporary jobs and 30,000 permanent jobs along with an emission reduction of 21.5 MtCO2/year. Under the highest implementation of such measures, future average NG spot prices higher than 50 euro/MWh allow to reduce GHG emissions implying decarbonisation costs lower than 80 euro/tCO2. Furthermore, three Carbon Abatement Cost curves by changing the NG prices have been elaborated. The findings of this work show how current high NG prices can be an oppor-tunity to speed up the transition process towards decarbonised energy systems.

Automated summary

This paper investigates measures for rapid reduction in Italian natural gas consumption, including PV systems, wind plants, biomethane, green hydrogen, and heat pumps. The analysis shows that an investment of less than 80 billion euros can significantly reduce natural gas consumption, create economic and employment benefits, and reduce CO2 emissions.