World historical mapping and potential distribution of Cinchona spp. in Peru as a contribution for its restoration and conservation

Peru is a megadiverse country in neotropical flora and is home to an important genus of plants called Cinchona and commonly all its individual species are called Cinchona Tree (Cinchona spp.), which represents the national tree for this nation. This country has 18 species, a group of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered, and their population trend is currently unknown. This genus is at risk of extinction due to overexploitation for its medicinal, constructive and food uses. The IUCN also mentions that increased species assessments and records will help make the IUCN Red List a barometer of life. Based on the fact that understanding the effects of environmental change on ecosystems requires the identification of historical and current baselines, which can act as reference conditions, this research generated georeferenced global historical maps of Cinchona spp. and then determined the appropriate sites based on environmental variables using the MaxEnt software and established the probabilities of occurrence of this genus in Peru to establish priority areas for its conservation and resto-ration. Four maps were obtained, one for each centennial, from 1737 to the present, with 10 860 occurrences of Cinchona. In the MaxEnt modeling, 10.30 % (13 3172.56 km2) and 19.20 % (24 7371.32 km2) of Peru's surface area had high ( > 0.6) and moderate (0.4-0.6) probabilities, respectively, of hosting Cinchona. Only 7.6 % (17 305.32 km2) and 22.0 % (50 153.73 km2) of the areas with high and moderate distribution potential, respec-tively, were covered by natural protected areas. Likewise, 11.90 % (21 738.75 km2) and 33.20 % (60 789.17 km2) of the high and moderate probability lands, respectively, correspond to degraded areas (DAs) and, there-fore, are considered a priority for restoration with Cinchona spp. The results may stimulate the rethinking of decision making for the National Action Plan for Reforestation with Species of the Genus Cinchona and other plans or tools for Cinchona conservation in Peru.

Automated summary

This study used georeferenced global historical maps and the MaxEnt software to determine the occurrence probabilities of Cinchona plants in Peru, in order to establish priority areas for their conservation and restoration. The results showed that many areas with high and moderate occurrence probabilities were not covered by natural protected areas, and a significant portion of these potential cultivation areas were already degraded. These findings have important implications for the decision-making regarding the conservation and restoration of Cinchona plants in Peru.