Global forest products markets and forest sector carbon impacts of projected sea level rise

Sea level rise (SLR) is among the climate-change-related problems of greatest concern, threatening the lives and property of coastal residents and generating far-reaching economic and ecological impacts. We project that SLR will lead to an increase in the rate of new housing construction to replace destroyed structures, impact global wood products supply and demand conditions, and cause changes in global forest sector carbon mitigation potential. Findings indicate that 71 million new units will be built by 2050 to accommodate the SLR-affected global population. More than two-thirds of these new units are projected to be in Asia. The estimated extra wood products needed to build these new residential units is 1,659 million m3, assuming that all these structures would be built mainly with wood, representing a 4 % increase in total wood consumption, compared to projected reference level global wood products consumption. Increased timber removals to meet this higher construction wood demand (alternative scenario) is shown to deplete global forest carbon by 2 % by 2050 compared to the reference scenario. However, all such projected declines in forest biomass carbon could be more than offset by increased carbon sequestration in harvested wood products, avoided emissions due to substitution of wood for non-wood materials in construction, and biomass regrowth on forestland by 2050, with an estimated net emissions reduction benefit of 0.47 tCO2e/tCO2e of extra wood used in SLR-related new houses over 30 years. The global net emissions reduction benefit increased to 2.13 tCO2e/tCO2e of extra wood when price-induced changes in forest land area were included.

Automated summary

Sea level rise is a major climate change issue that will have significant impacts on coastal residents, global wood products supply and demand, and the global forest sector. It is projected that 71 million new housing units will be built by 2050 to accommodate the affected population, with over two-thirds of these units in Asia. The increased wood consumption for these new units will lead to a 2% decrease in global forest carbon, but this decline can be offset by carbon sequestration in harvested wood products, substitution of wood for non-wood materials, and biomass regrowth on forestland, resulting in a net emissions reduction benefit.