Increasing Hurricane Intensification Rate Near the US Atlantic Coast

Hurricanes often cause severe damage and loss of life, and storms that intensify close to the coast pose a particularly serious threat. While changes in hurricane intensification and environment have been examined at basin scales previously, near-coastal changes have not been adequately explored. In this study, we address this using a suite of observations and climate model simulations. Over the 40-year period of 1979-2018, the mean 24-hr hurricane intensification rate increased by similar to 1.2 kt 6-hr(-1) near the US Atlantic coast. However, a significant increase in intensification did not occur near the Gulf coast over the same period. The enhanced hurricane intensification along the Atlantic coast is consistent with an increasingly favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment there, which is well simulated by climate models over the historical period. Further, multi-model projections suggest a continued enhancement of the storm environment and hurricane intensification near the Atlantic coast in the future.

Automated summary

This study uses observations and climate model simulations to explore the changes in hurricane intensification near the US Atlantic coast. The results show that there has been an increase in the mean hurricane intensification rate over the past 40 years along the Atlantic coast, while no significant change occurred near the Gulf coast. Climate models suggest that the storm environment and hurricane intensification near the Atlantic coast will continue to enhance in the future.