Population-weighted degree-days: The global shift between heating and cooling

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving global increases in temperature. This rise will likely lead to an increase in demand for cooling in the coming years. However, increasing temperatures are not the main explanatory factor for why the world is moving towards more cooling. This paper compares population and area-weighted cooling and heating degree-days derived using ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature, to show that population growth in warmer parts of the world drives cooling demand globally. The analysis shows that mean global area-weighted heating degree-days have fallen 8.46 degrees C days/year, whereas population-weighted heating degree-days have fallen by 12.5 degrees C days/year. At the same time, mean global area-weighted cooling degree-days have risen by 3.0 degrees C days/year, while populationweighted cooling degree-days have risen at 6.0 degrees C days/year. By using sub-country analysis, this paper shows that population-weighted degree-days can substantially differ from area-weighted degree-days. Finally, the findings highlight that the choice of heating and cooling degree-day base temperature is the most important parameter in the variability of degree-days and will need to be understood better in order to accurately account for future heating and cooling energy demand. (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Automated summary

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing global temperature increases, leading to a higher demand for cooling. However, population growth in warmer regions of the world is identified as the main driver behind the increasing cooling demand. The research highlights the significant difference between population-weighted and area-weighted degree-days and emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate base temperature for accurately predicting future heating and cooling energy demand.