Journal
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
Volume 142, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109270
Keywords
PLUS -LER coupling model; Land expansion; Multi -scenario simulation; Landscape ecological risk assessment; Guangzhou
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [U20A20117]
- Key -Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province [2020B1111380003]
- Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) [GML2019ZD0403]
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This research developed a framework to predict the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and ecological risks in Guangzhou. The results showed that the urbanization process in Guangzhou was obvious, and future urban expansion is inevitable. However, the overall ecological risk level is relatively low and decreasing.
High-intensity human activities have caused dramatic changes in land-use structure in Guangzhou. It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and the induced ecological risks. In this research, a framework was developed for landscape ecological risk (LER) prediction based on a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model through incorporating analysis of land expansion strategies, CA model based on multi -type random patch seeds and LER assessment model. The results showed: 1) the urbanization process of Guangzhou was obvious in the past 20 years. Proximity to railways, highways, and secondary roads have the primary impact on the expansion of cultivated land, grassland and construction land, respectively, 2) Guangz-hou's future urban expansion is inevitable based on the PLUS model prediction, 3) during 2000-2020, the overall LER in Guangzhou was at a relatively low level. The higher ecological risk area was mainly distributed in the southern sea area, and 4) from 2020 to 2040, Guangzhou's higher ecological risk areas are on an overall decreasing trend under three scenarios. This research can provide a reference for the planning of regional ecological environmental protection and sustainable development of land resources, as well as LER prediction.
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