Clinical and Dosimetric Predictors for Postoperative Cardiopulmonary Complications in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery

Background Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored correlations of clinical factors and dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and predicted their risk by establishing a nomogram model. Methods Clinical and DVH parameters of ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment from 2002 to 2020 were collected. Postoperative cardiopulmonary complications were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was applied, and a nomogram model was constructed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were performed to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Results Of the 307 ESCC patients enrolled in this study, 65 (21.2%) experienced pulmonary complications and 57 (18.6%) experienced cardiac complications. The following six risk factors were identified as independent risk factors for pulmonary complications by multivariate logistic regression analyses in the integrated model: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-9.70; P = 0.021), post-radiation therapy (RT) forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (OR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.28-0.90; P = 0.023), mean lung dose (MLD) (OR, 1.13; 95% CI 1.01-1.28; P = 0.041), and pre-RT monocyte (OR, 8.36; 95% CI 1.23-11.7; P = 0.03). The AUC of this integrated model was 0.705 (95% CI 0.64-0.77). The paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) concurrent chemotherapy regimen was the independent predictor of cardiac complication (OR, 2.50; 95% CI 1.22-5.55; P = 0.016). Conclusions For ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment, male sex, post-RT FEV1, MLD, and pre-RT monocyte were confirmed as significant predictors of postoperative pulmonary complications. A nomogram model including six risk factors was further established. The independent predictor of cardiac complication was TP concurrent chemotherapy.

Automated summary

This study investigated the correlations between clinical factors and dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications in locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. A nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk of these complications. The results showed that male sex, post-RT forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), mean lung dose (MLD), and pre-RT monocyte were significant predictors of postoperative pulmonary complications. Additionally, the paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) concurrent chemotherapy regimen was an independent predictor of cardiac complications.