China's different spatial patterns of population growth based on the Hu Line

The Hu Line has been regarded as one of the greatest geographical discoveries in China because it reveals the significant spatial relationship between human activity and natural environment. The spatial evolution of population on both sides of the Hu Line has had important implications for both urbanization and regional development and has attracted widespread attention during the dramatic economic and social changes since the implementation of reform and opening-up policy in China in 1978. Using Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, this paper studied the stability of the Hu Line and the spatial patterns of population growth on each side by constructing a spatial database of China's census data from 1982 to 2010. The findings are as follows: (1) In the last 30 years, the Hu Line has remained relatively stable, but a new tendency of population change has begun to emerge. The population ratio either side, namely, the southeast half (SEH) and the northwest half (NWH), of the Hu Line remains at roughly 94:6 (SHE: NWH). Noteworthy, the proportion of population in the SEH of the Hu Line has been decreasing slightly, while that in the NWH has been increasing slightly, as the latter has benefited from its higher rate of natural population growth. (2) The spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of the Hu Line were quite different. The degree of population concentration in the SEH increased faster than the NWH. Regions with a negative population growth rate have rapidly expanded; these were mainly located in the south of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River belt and northeastern China. Meanwhile, regions with a fast population growth rate were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan area. Thus, the spatial pattern of population growth in the SEH presented a concentration pattern that could be called Matthew effect pattern. (3) The spatial pattern of population growth in the NWH could be regarded as the Relative Balance pattern. In the NWH, the population growth rate was positive and the degree of population concentration was very low. There were many minority populations located in the NWH that usually lived in a dispersed pattern but had a higher rate of natural population growth due to the preferential population policy. There were also some regions with a negative rate of population growth in the NWH, which were mainly located close to the Hu Line and the Ancient Silk Road. (4) In the future, the spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of the Hu Line may continue to evolve. For the SEH, the capacity to attract more people to small and medium-sized cities and towns should be enhanced. For the NWH, the emphasis should be placed on promoting urbanization and enhancing population agglomeration in its major cities.