Multi-model averaging improves the performance of model-guided infliximab dosing in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases

Infliximab dosage de-escalation without prior knowledge of drug concentrations may put patients at risk for underexposure and trigger the loss of response. A single-model approach for model-informed precision dosing during infliximab maintenance therapy has proven its clinical benefit in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases. We evaluated the predictive performances of two multi-model approaches, a model selection algorithm and a model averaging algorithm, using 18 published population pharmacokinetic models of infliximab for guiding dosage de-escalation. Data of 54 patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis who underwent infliximab dosage de-escalation after an earlier escalation were used. A priori prediction (based solely on covariate data) and maximum a posteriori prediction (based on covariate data and trough concentrations) were compared using accuracy and precision metrics and the classification accuracy at the trough concentration target of 5.0 mg/L. A priori prediction was inaccurate and imprecise, with the lowest classification accuracies irrespective of the approach (median 59%, interquartile range 59%-63%). Using the maximum a posteriori prediction, the model averaging algorithm had systematically better predictive performance than the model selection algorithm or the single-model approach with any model, regardless of the number of concentration data. Only a single trough concentration (preferably at the point of care) sufficed for accurate and precise prediction. Predictive performance of both single- and multi-model approaches was robust to the lack of covariate data. Model averaging using four models demonstrated similar predictive performance with a five-fold shorter computation time. This model averaging algorithm was implemented in the TDMx software tool to guide infliximab dosage de-escalation in the forthcoming prospective MODIFI study (NCT04982172).

Automated summary

In patients with inflammatory bowel diseases, using a model averaging algorithm based on maximum a posteriori prediction shows better predictive performance for Infliximab dosage de-escalation compared to a model selection algorithm or a single-model approach. Only a single trough concentration is necessary for accurate and precise prediction, and the predictive performance is robust to the lack of covariate data.