A Long-Term Decarbonisation Modelling and Optimisation Approach for Transport Sector Planning Considering Modal Shift and Infrastructure Construction: A Case Study of China

Reducing direct carbon emissions in the transport sector is crucial for carbon neutrality. It is a considerable challenge to achieve substantial CO2 emissions reductions while satisfying rapidly growing traffic demands. Previous studies cannot be applied directly in long-term planning for the transport sector with rapid demand growth. To bridge this gap, a multi-regional model is proposed in this paper to quantify the optimal decarbonisation path for the transport sector in order to save costs. Considering modal shift and infrastructure construction, this model regards the transport sector as a whole and China is taken as a case study. The results show that electricity and hydrogen will be the major fuels of the transport sector in the future, accounting for 45 percent and 25 percent of fuel demands in 2060. This means that the electricity used by the transport sector accounts for 10 percent of the electricity consumed by the whole of society. The results reflect that freight transport has reached a CO2 emissions peak, while passenger transport will reach its own CO2 emissions peak around 2041. Giving priority to decarbonisation in freight transport can save 5 percent of the transition cost. The results also suggest that modal shift can save at most 7 percent of the transition cost.

Automated summary

This study uses a multi-regional model to quantify the optimal decarbonisation path for the transport sector and finds that electricity and hydrogen will be the major fuels in the future. Freight transport has reached its CO2 emissions peak, while passenger transport will reach its peak around 2041. Giving priority to decarbonisation in freight transport can save costs.