Journal
TRANSPORTMETRICA B-TRANSPORT DYNAMICS
Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages 590-611Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/21680566.2022.2108522
Keywords
Ride-sourcing; additive Gaussian process; stochastic process; matching and pickup processes; data-driven model development
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In this study, a data-driven approach based on the additive Gaussian Process Model (AGPM) is proposed for ride-sourcing market modeling. The results demonstrate the advantages of AGPMs in terms of estimation accuracy and their ability to design and estimate idle vehicle relocation strategies.
Matching and pickup processes are core features of ride-sourcing services. Previous studies have adopted abundant analytical models to depict the two processes and obtain operational insights; while the goodness of fit between models and data was dismissed. To simultaneously consider the fitness between models and data and analytically tractable formations, we propose a data-driven approach based on the additive Gaussian Process Model (AGPM) for ride-sourcing market modelling. The framework is tested based on real-world data collected in Hangzhou, China. We fit analytical models, machine learning models, and AGPMs, in which the number of matches or pickups are used as outputs and spatial, temporal, demand, and supply covariates are utilized as inputs. The results demonstrate the advantages of AGPMs in recovering the two processes in terms of estimation accuracy. Furthermore, we illustrate the modelling power of AGPM by utilizing the trained model to design and estimate idle vehicle relocation strategies.
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