Geospatial Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Land Surface Temperature for Landscape Risk Pattern Change Evaluation of Baghdad City, Iraq, Using CA-Markov and ANN Models

Understanding future landscape risk pattern change (FLRPC) scenarios will help people manage and utilize natural resources. In this study, we have selected a variety of landscape and anthropogenic factors as risk parameters for FLRPC assessment. Land use/cover change (LUCC) and land surface temperature (LST) are regarded as significant factors that have resulted in large-scale environmental changes. Result analysis of the previous LUCC from 1985 to 2020 showed that construction land and water body (WB) increased by 669.09 and 183.16 km(2), respectively. The study continues to predict future LUCC from 2030 to 2050, in which the result has shown that a large land use conversion occurred during the future prediction period. In addition, the LST forecasting analysis illustrated that the previous LST maximum and minimum are 38 degrees C and 15 degrees C, which will be increased to 40.83 degrees C and 26.25 degrees C in the future, respectively. Finally, the study used the weighted overlay method for the FLRPC analysis, which applies analytic hierarchy process techniques for risk evaluation. The FLRPC result demonstrated that Baghdad City is in the low-risk and medium-risk to high-risk categories from 2020 to 2050, while AL and BL are in the very-high-risk categories. Meanwhile, WB and NG have always been safe, falling into the very-low-risk and low-risk categories from 2020 to 2050. Therefore, this study has successfully assessed the Baghdad metropolitan area and made recommendations for future urban development for a more safe, resilient, and sustainable development.

Automated summary

Understanding future landscape risk pattern change scenarios can help manage and utilize natural resources effectively. This study examined various landscape and anthropogenic factors and found that land use/cover change and land surface temperature are significant drivers of environmental changes. The analysis of past and future changes in these factors revealed an increase in risk levels in Baghdad City over the coming decades.