Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NEURAL NETWORKS AND LEARNING SYSTEMS
Volume 33, Issue 7, Pages 2879-2891Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TNNLS.2020.3046629
Keywords
Forecasting; Time series analysis; Predictive models; Artificial neural networks; Load modeling; Training; Market research; Deep learning; exponential smoothing; long short-term memory; midterm load forecasting (MTLF); recurrent neural networks (NNs); time series forecasting
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The study presents a hybrid and hierarchical deep learning model for midterm load forecasting, combining ETS, LSTM, and ensembling. The model demonstrates high performance in load prediction and competes with both classical and state-of-the-art machine learning models.
This work presents a hybrid and hierarchical deep learning model for midterm load forecasting. The model combines exponential smoothing (ETS), advanced long short-term memory (LSTM), and ensembling. ETS extracts dynamically the main components of each individual time series and enables the model to learn their representation. Multilayer LSTM is equipped with dilated recurrent skip connections and a spatial shortcut path from lower layers to allow the model to better capture long-term seasonal relationships and ensure more efficient training. A common learning procedure for LSTM and ETS, with a penalized pinball loss, leads to simultaneous optimization of data representation and forecasting performance. In addition, ensembling at three levels ensures a powerful regularization. A simulation study performed on the monthly electricity demand time series for 35 European countries confirmed the high performance of the proposed model and its competitiveness with classical models such as ARIMA and ETS as well as state-of-the-art models based on machine learning.
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