Journal
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-11877-3
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- Ministry of education of Humanities and Social Science project [21YJC790149]
- Qingdao social science planning [QDSKL2101031]
- Natural Science Foundation of Shandong [ZR2020QG045]
- key project of plan in research and development of Shandong [2020RZE29007]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [202013011]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This paper examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural economic growth using data from China. The results show that temperature rise negatively affects the economic growth rate of each agricultural sector, with relatively vulnerable areas being more significantly affected. The impact is mainly concentrated in the farming period, and the effects tend to increase with temperature fluctuations.
Under the background of the new development concept, compared with the absolute impacts, the relative impacts of climate change on agricultural growth deserve more attention. Based on the data from China for years 1991 and 2018, this paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within cities to identify the heterogeneous effects on aggregate agricultural outcomes during farming and fallow periods. The results show that: first, as temperature rises reduce the economic growth rate of each agricultural sector, and the areas that are relatively vulnerable (i.e., areas where disposable income of farm households is below the sample mean) are more significantly affected by the negative impact of temperature rise; second, the impact of temperature rise on agricultural economic growth is mainly concentrated in the farming period, while the marginal damage of temperature rise is on a decreasing trend; third, the heterogeneous impact of temperature rise on agricultural economic growth during the agricultural fallow period is also not negligible. At the same time, its impact on agricultural economy is still in the primary stage, that is, its marginal damage tends to increase with the increase in temperature fluctuation. These results inform identifying the climate's role in agricultural development and provide a theoretical and operational perspective for further optimizing the adaptive policy systems. With wide coverage of adaptive technology, we should pay more attention to the even distribution of technological dividends and continuously improve the coping ability of vulnerable groups.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available