Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility

Climate change may increase or decrease human migration. Applying an integrated assessment model with migration dynamics to income data, the authors show that the lowest-income groups have mobility reduced by 10-35%. Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.

Automated summary

Climate change may lead to an increase or decrease in human migration. According to an integrated assessment model, the mobility of the lowest-income groups is reduced by 10-35%. Migration is a commonly used adaptation strategy to cope with climate change impacts, but resource constraints caused by climate change may limit the ability to migrate and result in immobility.