Modelling of Land Use/Cover and LST Variations by Using GIS and Remote Sensing: A Case Study of the Northern Pakhtunkhwa Mountainous Region, Pakistan

Alteration in Land Use/Cover (LULC) considered a major challenge over the recent decades, as it plays an important role in diminishing biodiversity, altering the macro and microclimate. Therefore, the current study was designed to examine the past 30 years (1987-2017) changes in LULC and Land Surface Temperature (LST) and also simulated for next 30 years (2047). The LULC maps were developed based on maximum probability classification while the LST was retrieved from Landsat thermal bands and Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) method for the respective years. Different approaches were used, such as Weighted Evidence (WE), Cellular Automata (CA) and regression prediction model for the year 2047. Resultantly, the LULC classification showed increasing trend in built-up and bare soil classes (13 km(2) and 89 km(2)), and the decreasing trend in vegetation class (-144 km(2)) in the study area. In the next 30 years, the built-up and bare soil classes would further rise with same speed (25 km(2) and 36.53 km(2)), and the vegetation class would further decline (-147 km(2)) until 2047. Similarly for LST, the temperature range for higher classes (27 -< 30 degrees C) increased by about 140 km(2) during 1987-2017, which would further enlarge (409 km(2)) until 2047. The lower LST range (15 degrees C to <21 degrees C) showed a decreasing trend (-54.94 km(2)) and would further decline to (-20 km(2)) until 2047 if it remained at the same speed. Prospective findings will be helpful for land use planners, climatologists and other scientists in reducing the increasing LST associated with LULC changes.

Automated summary

Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in land use/cover, with an increase in built-up and bare soil classes and a decrease in vegetation class. In the next 30 years, built-up and bare soil classes are expected to continue increasing, while the vegetation class will further decline. There have also been changes in temperature ranges, with an increase in higher temperature classes and a decrease in lower temperature classes.