Predictors and prognostic stratification for lupus low disease activity state: results from a prospective clinical trial

Objective To identify predictors for lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS), early-achieved LLDAS and long-term disease activity, and to refine a prognostic stratification tool for use in active SLE patients. Method A total of 245 active SLE patients were enrolled, followed up quarterly from 2014 to 2016. LLDAS-50 was defined as the maintenance of LLDAS for >= 50% of the observed time. LLDAS at 3 months after cohort entry (LLDAS-3mo) was considered an early-achieved LLDAS. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors for LLDAS, early-achieved LLDAS and long-term disease activity. Based on the factors associated with LLDAS, a prognostic stratification tool for LLDAS was established. Results The 2-year probability of achieving LLDAS was 62.9% (154/245). Multivariate analysis-determined renal involvement, haematological involvement and hypocomplementaemia were negative predictors for achieving LLDAS and LLDAS-50. In multivariate logistic analysis, antiphospholipid antibodies positivity, hypocomplementaemia, renal involvement and haematological involvement were identified as negative predictors for achieving LLDAS-3mo. LLDAS-3mo (P < 0.0001; risk ratio: 47.694; 95% CI: 13.776, 165.127) was a strong predictor for LLDAS-50. The probability of achieving LLDAS, LLDAS-50 and LLDAS-3mo were 88.9% (32/36), 69.4% (25/36) and 41.7% (15/36) in the low-risk group, 65% (65/100), 51.0% (51/100) and 32.0% (32/100) in intermediate-risk group, and 52.8% (57/108), 27.8% (30/108) and 13.0% (14/108) in high-risk group respectively. Significant differences (P < 0.0001) were observed in the LLDAS Kaplan-Meier estimates for the three risk groups based on the identified risk factors. Conclusion Renal involvement, haematological involvement and hypocomplementaemia were negative predictors of LLDAS achievement and maintenance. LLDAS-3mo was a positive predictor for the long-term sustainment of LLDAS.

Automated summary

This study aimed to identify predictors for achieving and maintaining lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS), as well as predictors for early achievement of LLDAS and long-term disease activity. Renal involvement, haematological involvement, and hypocomplementaemia were found to be negative predictors for LLDAS achievement and maintenance. LLDAS-3mo was a positive predictor for long-term sustainment of LLDAS. A prognostic stratification tool for LLDAS was established based on the identified risk factors.